Construction market: predictions for the future
What future for the construction industry in Italy? The laws enacted by governments will really be a stimulus to boost investment in the sector?
Despite the announcements of the Government intends to regain momentum in the construction market with the "plan" and with the relaunch of the "objective law", digging if necessary also the market of concessions and other works of undoubted construction site feasibility, the 2008 was not certainly an easy year for the sector in the last quarter bore the brunt of the crisis of international markets. If the previous term - end prematurely - will be remembered for '"sloth" with which he addressed the issue of infrastructure, scaling down the list of the 228 works unrealistic strategic put on track with the "objective law" and revoking the licenses of high speed the early 90s, the current one continues to leverage (at least the media) on the revitalization of the economy through the strengthening of the infrastructure. Riding on the principle that is so dear to the Keynesian economists extraction in which when consumption does not "pull" the policy maker should encourage investment in fixed capital because, being at the same time that capital is labor intensive (even with a certain amount of public spending ) create employment and income, and consequently stimulate the recovery in consumption.
Despite the good intentions Italy continues to be lagging behind in spending on "capital goods" (also including means of transport, machinery, equipment, etc..) In 2008, according to recent analysis of Eurostat (the Statistical Office of the European Commission), the "gross fixed capital formation" in the Italian budget accounts for only 2.2 per cent of GDP, compared with an average of 2.5 percent of the euro-zone and a 3.2 and 3 , 8 per cent respectively for France and Spain.
The same fate lies with investments in construction: the 153,458,000 in 2008 (52.1 per cent of "gross fixed capital formation" in total), accounted for 10.9 percent of total loans of GDP, almost one percentage point below the average EU-15 countries, which amounted to 11, 7 percent. Of these, we read in the "Second Report on the infrastructure in Italy" ANCI (National Builders Association), 18.7 percent (28,729,000) relates to public works, down by 5.1 percent compared to a year earlier, confirming a downward trend begun in 2005 and set to worsen further in the year, in fact, the Decree 185/2009, the so-called decree "anti-crisis", leading to quantify for 2009 for new infrastructure investments 16,824,000 , a reduction of 13.4 per cent compared to 2008.
Overall, the plan "anti-crisis" allocates 11 billion to infrastructure, of which nine are derived from reprogramming of Fund resources by Fas (Fund for underdeveloped areas) to be used - become compulsory - to 85 percent in the south, while only little more than two are in addition to the already existing resources.
The overall availability then rises to about 18 billion because it is in addition a further seven billion private resources from the motorway concessionaires. To get an idea of the inadequacy of such resources is a useful comparison: Germany for example has provided a plan "anti-crisis" which invests about $ 24 billion in new infrastructure and / or the upgrading of existing ones, while Obama - just elected - has set up a modern version of the new deal with the more substantial program of investment in infrastructure from the 50s (pointing talaltro also on strengthening the supply networks of public utilities and in power plants with low environmental impact and not only on the transport works ).
But the worst for the Italian construction sector is yet to come, since the shortage of domestic investment is in addition a climate of global recession which casts doubt on the strategy now covered by most of the Italian players of the buildings that make up for the static nature of the market internal seizing business opportunities for export. As for the domestic market, as early as 2008 ended with a decline of 2.3 percent (by value), despite the crisis has affected just over the last quarter of 2008. For 2009, the Reeds provides a further deterioration in the market with a contract of around 5 per cent in value (curiously the same as the Bank of Italy on these days due to the contraction of GDP) and in excess of 7 percent in quantity. Probably the effects of the economic downturn of the past few months, they will begin to unfold in the coming years when companies smaltiranno jobs that have in the portfolio "frustrated" by the failed acquisitions of recent times.
The Italian champions
Despite everything said so far, the analysis of the 2008 financial statements of the top 15 general contractors for construction issued by the company Guamari with the scientific coordination of Professor Aldo Norsa, prodromal to the usual "Special Charts" of Construction and Territory - Il Sole 24 Ore - show a good state of health of the summit of the Italian construction: it is in fact an increase of 12.4 per cent of consolidated sales, thanks to the success of some "successful" in M & A (mergers & acquisitions), past and present, and the greater market penetration d ' export, come to affect 39.9 percent of sales (from 37.5 per cent in 2007).
Going to the heart of the rankings, 2008 is characterized by a certain static Summit: in the first position confirms Impregilo (more internationalized) followed by Astaldi that unlike the first is strengthened more in Italy and abroad and Pizzarotti after the difficult "metabolism" of Garboli is hard to grow. Down from the podium are - in the same positions in 2007 - Pipelines (Ferfina group), which in 2008 succeeded in maintaining the status quo through the acquisition of a majority stake in Cossi Costruzioni that brought a turnover - almost everything in Italian - 110 million, Salini (third for export and a leader in the construction of dams), which prepares the merger with Todini dusting off the remains of the consortium Accent orphan however Rizzani de Eccher and - confirming first among the cooperatives of the League - the CMC Ravenna, known also in the news for being the first to win the first contract of the "objective law". You have to get off at the seventh position to find the first change: does entry into the top 10 another cooperative Emilia, Chg, celebrating the centenary of its foundation, constituting UNIECO and one of its subsidiaries, CLF, a leader in the armament rail to which capital participates in the Dutch Strukton, the consortium stable, Eureca. In eighth place we find that Bonatti closed 2008 with a turnover up 40.3 percent, less and less a construction company and more and more business-oriented oil and gas through its subsidiary Carlo Gavazzi Impianti which is followed by the cooperative Reggio UNIECO. Rounding out the top 10 is the Tuscan Baldassini Tognozzi Pontello, whose difficulties are also compounded by the failure of '"affaire Cogel" (Gilaf group, already in the consortium Operae) recently acquired and already put into liquidation.
From the 11th to the 15th position we find Mantovani, a leader in maritime works, relying on the captive market that ensures the Consorzio Venezia Nuova, the Friulian Rizzani de Eccher (according to percentage of sales abroad, preceded only by Salini) Etrutria Consortium, (which despite the name is a cooperative and not a consortium) which has enhanced skills in public works with the acquisition of Coestra in 2006 and has specialized in building specialized niche thanks to the purchase in 2000 of Inso (formerly of Nuovo Pignone), Coopsette, including cooperatives more diversified in the Italian construction and, finally, the Vicenza Maltauro, this last is the one that is scoring exploits with the greatest leap in production of 63.3 thanks the 2007 acquisition of the business of Ferrari / Ira and Torno Internazionale (Torno Global Contracting today) through the Infrastructure Consortium (which also participates Enterprise).
On the economic front in 2008 none of the top 15 general contractors closes the income statement at a loss; profits are up - on a cumulative basis - by 38.3 per cent bringing the profit / turnover to 3.3 percent (from 2 7 of 2007). "Champion" Bonatti of profitability with a profit / turnover of more than 7 percent (confirming the most profitable oil and gas compared to constructions), while bringing up the rear is Coopsette that becomes of little more than 0.2 per cent of turnover. On the balance sheet, financial position worsened indicates a total of 25.1 per cent and that is just over 15 per cent of the total accumulated sales. As for the commercial aspects 2008 ended with a backlog strengthened by 5.7 percent which should ensure about five years of activity and which manufacturers will cope with a labor force grew by 8 percent, a positive sign for a ' economy - the Italian one - which probably will increase the unemployment rate to 10 percent.
18/06/2009
----------------------------------------
Translated via software
----------------------------------------
Source:
Italian version of ReteIngegneri.it